2007 College Football Preview, Part I
One of my sports buddies, Matt Reaves, and I have gotten together again to get you ready for a great season. In March, we brought you the ultimate NCAA Tournament Preview. Now we turn our attention to the gridiron, to bring you our NCAA Division I Top 25.
Over the next three Wednesdays, we’ll unveil the Top 25 in descending order. Today, in part I, you can learn all you need to know about teams 25-16.
But, before we get to that, please rise as Jens Lindemann leads the UCLA marching band in our national anthem:
For each team in our preview, there will be seven parts: (1) a capsule preview, (2) the team’s strength, (3) the team’s weakness, (4) the game they might lose, (5) the game they should win easily, (6) their key matchup, and (7) a video of their fight song.
We hope you enjoy this preview. Matt and I have enjoyed putting it together in our free time.
So, without any further delay, let’s begin with the teams that were considered, but missed the Top 25:
Florida State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Boston College.
Now for the teams that make up the Top 25:
25. University of Missouri Tigers
Though this writer (Matt) has been calling for Coach Gary Pinkel’s head for the past several years, it cannot be denied that this year’s Missouri Tiger football team is the most talented squad in nearly two decades. Will Chase Daniel be enough to get Mizzou to the Big 12 Championship game?
Strengths: Offense, namely, junior quarterback Chase Daniel. Daniel will be the man in charge of Mizzou’s spread offense. Leading rusher Tony Temple returns though he suffered a knee injury (bruise) on the first day of practice. Overall, the offense returns 8 starters from one of the more explosive offenses in the Big 12 (despite Coach Gary Pinkel’s conservative game calling).
Weakness: As much as the offense is a strength, the defense is a bigger weakness. The Tigers return 5 starters and lose both starting defensive ends from last season (Brian Smith and Xzavie Jackson-first and seventh on the all time leaders for sacks). The Tigers gave up 21 or more points in 1/3 of their games last season. This will need to improve.
Game Most Likely to Lose: October 13th, at Oklahoma
Game Where They Should Roll: November 24th, at Kansas (hey, it’s the Jayhawks)
Key Game: October 6th, Nebraska-the winner will be in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 North.
(okay, so it was more than their fight song, but we thought we’d get you all excited with a full performance!)
24. University of Hawai’i Warriors
If you like offense and staying up really late, Hawai’i is going to be the team for you. This team is going to put up some insane scores against one of the weakest schedules in the country. Will those totals be enough to make Colt Brennan a real Heisman candidate? And, can the Warriors overcome their schedule and crash the BCS party?
Strength: All offense, all the time. Colt Brennan and about 10,000 receivers will put up points like nobody’s business. With a horrible schedule, Brennan might put up (are you ready for this?) 60 touchdowns.
Weakness: Schedule. This thing is pathetic. It’s terrible. It’s embarrassing. Two (2!) games against I-AA opponents, plus other horrible match-ups basically means this team has no chance of going to the BCS unless nearly every other team loses at least twice.
Game They Might Lose: It might seem obvious, but I’m going with Boise State. A team with experience and a running attack like that will be amazingly tough for Hawai’i to win.
Game They Should Win Easily: Okay, are you ready for these games? Here are two games with honest predictions. September 2: Hawai’i 84 (yes you read that right), Northern Colorado 10. September 23: Hawai’i 73, Charleston Southern 13. Told you the schedule was awful!
Key Game: Boise State. Unless someone falters, this game should be for an undefeated season (at that point, Hawai’i plays Washington after) and a possible BCS game (especially for the Broncos). If other teams are faltering around the nation, it could be a chance for Hawai’i to show they can play with a very good team, but they had better hope Boise State is 11-0 at that point. One more note: the game against Washington is still TBD as far as its time goes. This means that networks are ready to jump on it if the Warriors are 11-0 at that point.
23. Boise State University Broncos
After playing in quite possibly last season’s best college football game (Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl), as well as the best ending play (the Statue of Liberty Play for the winning two point conversion), Boise State looks to pick up where they left off last season-undefeated. Will the engaging Ian Johnson be enough?
Strength: The offense. Boise State returns quarterback Jared Zabransky as well as running back Ian Johnson in 2007. These offensive stars combined for 48 TD’s last season! Oh yeah, they also play in the WAC, where defense doesn’t exist.
Weakness: Respect. This team finished undefeated last season, beat Oklahoma in a BCS bowl, owns the longest winning streak in the nation and will still barely crack Top 25 polls to begin the season.
Game They Might Lose: October 25th at Washington. U-Dub is the only BCS school on their schedule.
Game Where They Should Roll: All their other games other than Hawaii. All other WAC schools cannot match their talent.
Key Game: As Adam said, November 23 at Hawai’i. This game might hold BCS implications if both teams are undefeated.
This video is from the pep rally before their victory over Oklahoma.
22. Wake Forest University Demon Deacons
This team surprised us all last year, making it to the ACC championship game…and beyond. Wake will need to continue the magic, because they continue to be behind in talent at many positions. But, after last year, who knows?
Strength: Experience. Wake Forest is balanced across the grade levels, including having 55 upperclassmen. This group had a magical run last year, led by a spread offense and a run-stopping defense. Was it a fluke, or was it true football talent?
Weakness: Talent. Coach Grobe got what seemed to be “the most” from his players
last year, and they snuck up on a lot of people. Now folks know how well this team can play. Is that enough, with a pretty tough schedule?
Game They Might Lose: While there are several conference games I can see them losing (Florida State, Boston College), the game that will tell us the most about this team is their 2nd; September 8 against Nebraska. They have the Big Red coming to Winston-Salem. This is their chance to shine, but the Huskers are fast and deep.
Game They Should Win Easily: One word: Army.
Key Game: October 11 against Florida State. This mid-season battle could very well decide the Atlantic division of the ACC.
21. Pennsylvania State University Nittany Lions
Joe Paterno’s reaction after he learns he made Adam and Matt’s Top 25…
Strength: QB Anthony Morelli. Morelli returns for his senior season to lead the Nittany Lion offense. That and the coaching of the legendary picture opportunist, Joe Paterno.
Weakness: QB Anthony Morelli. While talented (#2 ranked quarterback in his high school class in the nation) Morelli has never put all of his talent together (think Chris Simms) and makes critical mistakes in key situations.
Game They Might Lose: 9/22 at Michigan. This will be a tough road test for Morelli and crew.
Game Where They Should Roll: September 1st, against Florida International. The FIU coach will have the Joe Pa look after the game.
Key Game: October 27th against THE Ohio State University. If Penn State does somehow get past Michigan, this game could decide the Big 10 Title.
20. Texas Christian University Horned Frogs
TCU is a perennial pick in the Top 25, seemingly. In recent years, they have come close a couple of times to being the BCS spoiler, and have also been a major disappointment. Can they finally finish the deal and play after New Year’s Day for some serious money?
Strength: The Horned Frogs used several players last year at skill positions. That experience and depth can only help them in close games.
Weakness: Schedule. TCU opens with Big XII up-and-comer Baylor, then plays Texas. They also get Stanford, who should be somewhat improved. Credit TCU for scheduling some big boys, but they may have overdone it a bit.
Game They Might Lose: Texas. While I think this will be closer than many people do, Texas is way to fast for the Frogs.
Game They Should Win Easily: Many think that TCU’s battle with BYU might be for the conference title. Win or lose, the next game will not be. Texas Christian will roll over UNLV by at least 3 touchdowns.
Key Game: The November 8 showdown with Brigham Young should be for the top spot in the conference and could feature two teams at the peak of their offensive work.
Some TCU fan needs to put the fight song on YouTube, but this video shows that the “other” conferences play pretty hard.
19. University of Arkansas Razorbacks
Having gone to school in Arkansas for five years in my life, two words come to mind whenever I hear the words “Arkansas Razorbacks”…WHO CARES! If you are looking for quite possibly the most obsessive compulsive fan base ever known to man that doesn’t wear orange, look no further…
Strengths: Running back Darren McFadden finished runner up for the Heisman Trophy last year. He very well could win it this year in coach Houston Nutt’s boring grind it out style of football.
Weakness: Coaching and distractions. Coach Houston Nutt is living on his ninth life. The crazed fan base is looking for any reason to bury this guy despite last year’s great season. From hiring offensive coordinators with big recruits from a high school down the road, to running away prized recruits, to checking the head coaches text messaging records and making them public, nothing this state or its fan base does suprises me anymore.
Game They Might Lose: The Who Cares Bowl brought to you by Matt Reaves on November 10, which will be played in Neyland Stadium against the Tennessee Volunteers.
Game Where They Should Roll: Septebmer 1st against Troy, although Troy beat Mizzou on national television a few years ago. Expect a meltdown in the state of Arkansas if this happens to the Razorbacks.
Key Game: 11/24 at LSU- The winner of this game will play in the SEC Championship Game.
18. The State University of New Jersey–Rutgers Scarlet Knights
I’ve always wanted to type that.
Rutgers were America’s team last year, making their way to the top tier of the much-improved Big East. Now they need to continue that momentum and see if they can improve on their bowl bid (the Texas Bowl) from last season.
Strength: Ray Rice and Greg Schiano. Rice ran for 1794 yards and scored 20 rushing TDs a year ago. Schiano proved he could lift Rutgers up to the top by getting the team to forget years of terrible play. What now?
Weakness: Quarterback play. While the Rutgers system is about running the ball, passes still have to be completed to your own team. Returning starter Mike Teel threw 12 TDs last year, but also threw 13 interceptions. To beat top teams in the Big East, that has to improve.
Game They Might Lose: The obvious choice is West Virginia (10/27), but I’m picking the game before. On October 20th, the Knights play South Florida, who proved last year they can knock off top teams. Also, this is a classic “look ahead” game.
Game They Should Win Easily: Take your pick. Rutgers’ first three games are all jokes, but I’ll take their season opener against perennial bottom-feeder Buffalo. Prediction: Buffalo has less than 150 total yards of offense, while Ray Rice runs for more than that.
Key Game: It has to be West Virginia. Rutgers plays Louisville last, so they cannot afford to make that a “must-win.” They need to take care of business against the ‘Eers, so they can play Louisville straight up.
17. University of Nebraska Cornhuskers
Big Rad Nation awaits another year in the “new” system. Last year’s squad showed major signs of improvement, but a daunting schedule could be their undoing in 2007. Can a purely pro-style quarterback and a resurgent running game lead the Huskers up the polls? They will have every opportunity to move up, as their schedule strength is amazing.
Strength: In a system that lends itself to passing, the strength may be the running game. The “west coast offense” uses the run far more than most people admit. Last year’s “four-headed monster” of RBs will be hurt by Brandon Jackson’s graduation, but the other backs should continue to move the ball in this offense.
Weakness: The Huskers are an interesting team. They are very good in all aspects, but not “Top 5 level” in any of them. Their weakness may simply be playing up to their potential. A possible weakness in the most complex offense in America is probably a new quarterback.
Game They Might Lose: It has to be Southern California. Last year’s showing in Los Angeles was terrible, and the Huskers get the Trojans again. This time it’s in Lincoln, but last year’s game didn’t give much hope.
Game They Should Win Easily: Most would say their season opener against Nevada. Keep in mind, though, that the Wolfpack play a strange offense (“the pistol”), so that should keep that game close. I’m going with the Huskers’ 4th game. They play Ball State on September 22. And, by the way, this contest starts a run of eight consecutive with a “TBD” kick-off time. If the ‘Huskers can be 3-0 at this point, they will be on television…a LOT.
Key Game: While I usually focus on conference games, I’m going with the USC match-up. It’s very simple. Win and the Huskers go up to the Top 10. Lose, and their only hope for serious money in bowls is by winning the Big XII.
Alright, so it wasn’t the fight song. But it sure was GREAT! That Tommie Frazier play against Florida is the best play in the history of college football…or, at least, it’s close.
16. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins
This team pulled one of the greatest shockers last year, defeating Southern California in the season finale. That may have been a surprise, but UCLA improved all last year, and continues to look good for this season. Anything less than 3rd in the Pac-10 would be a major disappointment, but they are thinking far more.
Strength: Confidence. Before losing their bowl game, UCLA won its final three regular season games in 2006, blasting Oregon State (25-7) and Arizona State (24-12) before pulling the ultimate in taking down USC (13-9). That run in the Pac-10 proved UCLA can play at the top of that conference.
Weakness: Inconsistency. This team was up and down last year, losing to teams they could have beaten (Florida State, Washington), but playing right with top teams (beating USC, losing to Notre Dame by 3). Can they stay together for 60 minutes at a time for an entire season? If they can be focused, this team is really dangerous.
Game They Might Lose: Of course, USC is the obvious choice, but I’m going off the board and picking Arizona. The last few years ‘Zona has been a good late-season team, and this early November game is in the desert.
Game They Should Win Easily: Believe it or not, I’m not piling on Notre Dame. While I think UCLA will win that game, it’s just not smart to say the Irish will lose “big.” I’m going with their season (and conference) opener against Stanford. Stanford improved last year, but so did UCLA.
Key Game: Right in the middle of the season (October 20), UCLA hosts the California Bears. This game could show us who will be the top candidate to steal the Pac-10 from USC.
