2011 College Football Preview |

It’s time for my ever-annual, always-wrong college football preview!

Why should you keep reading when I’m always wrong? So you can trash me on Twitter throughout the year! (You do follow me on Twitter, right? If not, why not?!?!)

Anyway, on with the preview.

We’ll look at the the six BCS conferences, then you can read my 10 bold predictions.

ACC

Let’s make this clear: if Florida State does NOT win this conference, it will be a totally ruined season in Tallahassee. The Seminoles play Oklahoma early in the year, and I think that might be the only game they lose (if they lose that one).

Big East

What the Big East needs the year before TCU joins is, well, respectability. They have a shot at it when South Florida travels to Notre Dame to open the season. They also have a shot to lose it right off the bat. If teams lose games they should win, the attitude of “same ol’ Big East” will reign.

My pick for this conference is South Florida. I know Pittsburgh is the favorite, but I like USF’s speed in the round-robin and short (only 7 conference games) season.

Big 10 (+2)

Yes, get used to it, the Big 10 now has 12 teams, not just 11. My Cornhuskers join the league, and they fit perfectly into the culture. Their schedule is murder, though.

I have no idea what the divisions are in this league (Leaders and Legends??? My vote was “Lakes and Plains”…how perfect is that for the Upper Midwest?), but I’m picking Wisconsin to beat Nebraska in the regular season, then lose to them in the Big 10 title game. The Huskers will play in the Rose Bowl as the Big 10 rep. That’s how weird this season could be.

Big 12 (-2)

The Big 12 now has 10 teams (and, soon, there will only be 9) and will not have a conference title game. Oklahoma is the favorite…by far. They will win this league, but not before struggling with Texas A&M.

Pac 12

Welcome Utah and Colorado to the ChangeYourNameWhenYouAddTeams-12. Utah will be the better addition this year, but Colorado means that the Pac-12 should be skiing champs every single year!

My pick in this league is Oregon. I know they have to travel to Stanford, but Oregon’s offense should be blazing by that point in the season. The Ducks play LSU to open the season, so we should know if they will be in the national title picture right out of the gate.

SEC

Yes, the SEC is strong. It is the best conference this year. I will ask the question that no one else is willing to ask though: If the SEC is always “so” strong and “so” rugged, how does someone always come through without a loss? It’s worth asking, right?

My pick is Alabama here. I don’t think they will go unbeaten, but I think they win this conference.

10 Bold Predictions

1. Boise State will go unbeaten…again. Yes, I think they will beat Georgia in week 1 (although it should be a wonderful game).

2. Boise State will be left out of the title game…again. And without good reason, I might add. (Here come the comments!)

3. There will be 4 undefeated teams at the end of the year. They will be the two teams I have in the title game (to be announced in a moment), Boise State, and Houston.

4. I’m agreeing with Pat Forde on an upset alert for the opening week: Murray State will upset Louisville to open the year, just as they did to open the Men’s NCAA tournament back in March. [UPDATE: My total fail there. Morehead St. beat The ‘Ville in March. Thanks to Stuart for pointing that out in the comments. Just a total fail on my part!]

5. Auburn will finish 5-7 after winning the national title last year.

6. Ohio State, though on probation, will win at least 8 games. (That game with Miami sure looks like a great showcase of college football’s “best,” doesn’t it? After this off-season, I never want to hear about how “scandalous” college basketball is compared to football!

7. Notre Dame will play in a BCS bowl game, but with two losses.

8. Andrew Luck will not win the Heisman trophy. Landry Jones of Oklahoma will.

9. Before the 2012 season starts, the SEC will announce plans to expand to 16 teams, not 14. (Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Duke are my choices to move.)

10. The BCS title game will feature two “OU’s”, as Oklahoma will defeat Oregon to win the title. My other top choices to play in the game (in order): Alabama, Boise State and Nebraska. Can you imagine the explosion in the Midwest if Nebraska and Oklahoma played for the title?

Enjoy the season!

10 Comments

Stuart Yancy

August 31, 2011 at 11:41 AM

Nice post. It was Morehead that beat the Birds in the tourney though, not Murray State. I hope you are right about Murray but hope UK doesn’t share the same fate when they play Western.

NC and the Dookies in the SEC? Think of the BBall implications! The Duke Football team would really get beaten up in the SEC.

Adam Faughn

August 31, 2011 at 11:53 AM

I can’t believe I had Murray there..I even linked to a video!!! Total BlogFail there. Oh well.

I think Duke/UNC would come to make the SEC a power in both sports and begin the process of some of the major conferences removing themselves from the NCAA. It will take a long time, but I think we are headed that way.

Joey Sparks

August 31, 2011 at 12:45 PM

If Boise runs the table (ie, beats UGA), they’ll finally make it into the title game. Not necessarily going to say they *deserve to,* but the media will do their best to set up the ultimate David vs. Goliath scenario.

Per your question about the SEC, what is the number of teams that have went 14-0 from the SEC since the BCS started in 1998? Does that really constitute an “always go undefeated?”

The percentage likelihood for AU to go undefeated last season was *insanely* low (around 3%)…TCU’s was 50%. http://goo.gl/Q9goM

Just proves how remarkable the last two seasons in this state have been. Competition breeds competition.

I think if a team from CUSA goes undefeated, it’s USM, not Houston. Having Keenum back is a big deal for them, though.

Teams I think will be in the BCSCG game mix are: SEC (Bama or Arky), Boise/Notre Dame, Va Tech or Stanford (think Larry Coker effect).

John Gaines

August 31, 2011 at 1:42 PM

Duke and UNC in the SEC would do a lot for the conference in basketball, but I don’t see it happening. They are the heart of the ACC both geographically and culturally. NC State is more likely if any Triangle school were to leave the ACC for the SEC.

Your comment spurred me to do a little research concerning undefeated teams in the SEC. Since the conference expanded to two divisions in 1992, there have been six undefeated teams … Tennessee in ’98 being the only one not from the state of Alabama (Auburn, ’93, ’04, ’10; Alabama, ’92, ’09). Going back 60 years, current SEC members have fielded a total of 14 undefeated teams, 10 of them coming from the state of Alabama. No team besides Alabama and Auburn has gone undefeated more than once in the last 60 years. The Tide and Tigers have both had five undefeated teams in that span. So it is not really the SEC going undefeated so much. It is just the “A” list teams from the Heart of Dixie.

BTW, Florida has done very well over the last two decades, but their last undefeated team came in 1911. They have played football 100 years without winning all their games in a season.

Adam Faughn

August 31, 2011 at 1:45 PM

I’m not totally sold on UNC and Duke, but it was just a bold prediction. Sort of a “let’s throw this out there.” I do think the SEC will go to 16 sooner rather than later.

Adam Faughn

August 31, 2011 at 1:47 PM

Ok, so maybe there aren’t a ton of 13-0 teams, but there have been a lot of 12-1 teams. I just get tired of hearing people say stuff like, “It’s impossible to win on the road in the SEC.” If that was true, every team would be 4-4 in conference.

I do think the SEC is the best conference right now, but it is worth looking at it through another lens when teams continue to go 12-1 and 13-0.

John Gaines

August 31, 2011 at 2:04 PM

Minor correction to the undefeated teams stats, in the interest of accuracy. There have been 15 undefeated teams (comment above said 14).

Undefeated SEC teams since 1951:
Auburn (’57, ’58, ’92, ’04, ’10)
Alabama (’61, ’66, ’79, ’92, ’09)
LSU (’58)
Ole Miss (’62)
Arkansas (’64) (not an SEC member then)
Georgia (’80)
Tennessee (’98)

Other SEC teams’ most recent undefeated season:*

Vanderbilt (1944)
Florida (1911)
South Carolina (1907)
Mississippi State (1903)
Kentucky (1898)

*Only Vanderbilt was an SEC member at the time of their undefeated season

John Gaines

August 31, 2011 at 2:13 PM

Agree with your basic point, Adam. Middle-of-the-pack SEC teams often stink in bowl games, as a case in point. However, having four different conference teams win the national championship in four years is a mark of dominance that is unlikely to ever be equaled — unless Arkansas or South Carolina wins this year and extends it to five different champions in a row.

Is this a fair summation: the SEC has experienced a streak of great teams unlike anything college football has ever seen before. That does not mean that every team is better than teams in other conferences. The Boise-Georgia, LSU-Oregon, and Ole Miss-BYU games this weekend will tell us something. I would not be surprised to see SEC teams lose two or even all three of those games.

Joey Sparks

August 31, 2011 at 2:53 PM

Wow, that’s some compelling research, John. Kinda supports my thoughts. Really fascinating about the concentration of teams from this state.

Back to the original question, Adam, I don’t think anyone legitimately thinks it’s an impossible-to-win-in conference. The NFC North will have 3 really good teams this year, but that doesn’t mean one can’t or won’t rise to the top of it or the NFL. Just because the SEC is the toughest week in week out and the toughest on the road doesn’t mean everyone would all be 4-4.

Ross Acy

September 11, 2011 at 7:22 PM

Seems like TCU will probably possess a definitely dependable football crew this calendar year, especially with their convincing win more than Air Force.

Stuart Yancy

August 31, 2011 at 11:41 AM

Nice post. It was Morehead that beat the Birds in the tourney though, not Murray State. I hope you are right about Murray but hope UK doesn’t share the same fate when they play Western.

NC and the Dookies in the SEC? Think of the BBall implications! The Duke Football team would really get beaten up in the SEC.
Adam Faughn

August 31, 2011 at 11:53 AM

I can’t believe I had Murray there..I even linked to a video!!! Total BlogFail there. Oh well.

I think Duke/UNC would come to make the SEC a power in both sports and begin the process of some of the major conferences removing themselves from the NCAA. It will take a long time, but I think we are headed that way.
Joey Sparks

August 31, 2011 at 12:45 PM

If Boise runs the table (ie, beats UGA), they’ll finally make it into the title game. Not necessarily going to say they *deserve to,* but the media will do their best to set up the ultimate David vs. Goliath scenario.

Per your question about the SEC, what is the number of teams that have went 14-0 from the SEC since the BCS started in 1998? Does that really constitute an “always go undefeated?”

The percentage likelihood for AU to go undefeated last season was *insanely* low (around 3%)…TCU’s was 50%. http://goo.gl/Q9goM

Just proves how remarkable the last two seasons in this state have been. Competition breeds competition.

I think if a team from CUSA goes undefeated, it’s USM, not Houston. Having Keenum back is a big deal for them, though.

Teams I think will be in the BCSCG game mix are: SEC (Bama or Arky), Boise/Notre Dame, Va Tech or Stanford (think Larry Coker effect).
John Gaines

August 31, 2011 at 1:42 PM

Duke and UNC in the SEC would do a lot for the conference in basketball, but I don’t see it happening. They are the heart of the ACC both geographically and culturally. NC State is more likely if any Triangle school were to leave the ACC for the SEC.

Your comment spurred me to do a little research concerning undefeated teams in the SEC. Since the conference expanded to two divisions in 1992, there have been six undefeated teams … Tennessee in ’98 being the only one not from the state of Alabama (Auburn, ’93, ’04, ’10; Alabama, ’92, ’09). Going back 60 years, current SEC members have fielded a total of 14 undefeated teams, 10 of them coming from the state of Alabama. No team besides Alabama and Auburn has gone undefeated more than once in the last 60 years. The Tide and Tigers have both had five undefeated teams in that span. So it is not really the SEC going undefeated so much. It is just the “A” list teams from the Heart of Dixie.

BTW, Florida has done very well over the last two decades, but their last undefeated team came in 1911. They have played football 100 years without winning all their games in a season.
Adam Faughn

August 31, 2011 at 1:45 PM

I’m not totally sold on UNC and Duke, but it was just a bold prediction. Sort of a “let’s throw this out there.” I do think the SEC will go to 16 sooner rather than later.
Adam Faughn

August 31, 2011 at 1:47 PM

Ok, so maybe there aren’t a ton of 13-0 teams, but there have been a lot of 12-1 teams. I just get tired of hearing people say stuff like, “It’s impossible to win on the road in the SEC.” If that was true, every team would be 4-4 in conference.

I do think the SEC is the best conference right now, but it is worth looking at it through another lens when teams continue to go 12-1 and 13-0.
John Gaines

August 31, 2011 at 2:04 PM

Minor correction to the undefeated teams stats, in the interest of accuracy. There have been 15 undefeated teams (comment above said 14).

Undefeated SEC teams since 1951:
Auburn (’57, ’58, ’92, ’04, ’10)
Alabama (’61, ’66, ’79, ’92, ’09)
LSU (’58)
Ole Miss (’62)
Arkansas (’64) (not an SEC member then)
Georgia (’80)
Tennessee (’98)

Other SEC teams’ most recent undefeated season:*

Vanderbilt (1944)
Florida (1911)
South Carolina (1907)
Mississippi State (1903)
Kentucky (1898)

*Only Vanderbilt was an SEC member at the time of their undefeated season
John Gaines

August 31, 2011 at 2:13 PM

Agree with your basic point, Adam. Middle-of-the-pack SEC teams often stink in bowl games, as a case in point. However, having four different conference teams win the national championship in four years is a mark of dominance that is unlikely to ever be equaled — unless Arkansas or South Carolina wins this year and extends it to five different champions in a row.

Is this a fair summation: the SEC has experienced a streak of great teams unlike anything college football has ever seen before. That does not mean that every team is better than teams in other conferences. The Boise-Georgia, LSU-Oregon, and Ole Miss-BYU games this weekend will tell us something. I would not be surprised to see SEC teams lose two or even all three of those games.
Joey Sparks

August 31, 2011 at 2:53 PM

Wow, that’s some compelling research, John. Kinda supports my thoughts. Really fascinating about the concentration of teams from this state.

Back to the original question, Adam, I don’t think anyone legitimately thinks it’s an impossible-to-win-in conference. The NFC North will have 3 really good teams this year, but that doesn’t mean one can’t or won’t rise to the top of it or the NFL. Just because the SEC is the toughest week in week out and the toughest on the road doesn’t mean everyone would all be 4-4.
Ross Acy

September 11, 2011 at 7:22 PM

Seems like TCU will probably possess a definitely dependable football crew this calendar year, especially with their convincing win more than Air Force.

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